With migrant workers facing job losses, anti-migrant sentiment and even violence in the deepening global financial crisis, World Bank researchers predict remittances will fall to $290 billion in 2009, from last year’s high of $305 billion.
Remittances flowing to developing countries from Russia, South Africa, Malaysia and India are “especially vulnerable to the rolling economic crisis”, says the Bank’s revised Migration and Development Brief.
With a total of $45 billion, India was the top recipient of remittances in 2008. China came next with $34 billion followed by Mexico ($26 billion), Philippines ($18 billion) and Poland ($11 billion).
But even with a drop of between five and eight percent, remittances will still outstrip private capital flows, expected to fall by half in 2009, and official development aid, typically around $100 billion, the bank said.
Remittance flows will stay “resilient” because many countries have a well-established “stock” of migrants who are unlikely to leave their adopted countries.
